The Dominos Still Fall

Just in case our last couple of posts are misinterpreted as another case of impecunious Brits taking jealous pleasure at the impoverishment of our once-wealthy American cousins, let us make it clear that we have a much bigger problem on our own doorstep.

The American problem is that recovery is too slow, but there is still recovery and the worst of the crisis is probably past, at least for the time being. The European Union, on the other hand, has not really addressed its deeper structural problem, and is therefore a crisis waiting to happen.

In fairness, the euro, the common currency of most EU states, is a symptom, rather than the cause, of this problem. There was always a hole in the deal: the euro is only as strong as its weakest economy. In particular, lax fiscal discipline on the part of a single Eurozone government undermines the whole currency. The mechanisms for imposing discipline were weak from the beginning, but everyone ignored them when times were good.

That is no longer an option. The party is over and the bill has just been presented. The EU, however, has even less leadership than the USA. The European response to the inability of overindulged states like Greece, Spain, and Ireland to pay what they owe has been described, elegantly but all too accurately, as “agreeing a funding mechanism but not funding it”.

Nationalised banks in Ireland are bust. This in turn puts pressure on the sovereign debt of the Irish government. Much of that debt forms a key part of the balance sheets of foreign banks – not least in Britain, which may therefore suffer despite the UK not being a Eurozone member.

This could impact on the whole economy. The equity market, still a little too bullish under the circumstances, may be in denial, but the rising price of gold suggests a lot of the smart money is playing it safe in anticipation of another crash.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the Americans have some right to feel smug. The first phase of the infamous Troubled Asset Relief Programme – that is to say the initial bail out of the banks, as opposed to the later unnecessary “stimulus packages” – has been a qualified success. Buying up toxic assets, as opposed to nationalising banks, means the government has been able to get away with a quick “in and out”, with no longer term commitments on either side. Most of the American banks repaid the government very quickly in order to get it out of their hair, and stability was restored to the US banking system within months. Those who still carp about it can see the alternative in Ireland.

Choice Without Responsibility

We become entrepreneurs because we love freedom. That means making our own choices – which means taking responsibility for the consequences of those choices. A choice without consequences is not really a choice.

This applies both to business choices and to personal choices. We cannot defend our right to make our own business choices without defending the rights of others to make their own personal choices, such as the choice to have children. However, just as we take responsibility for our business choices as entrepreneurs, those who choose to be parents must take responsibility for their personal choices.

So it is unfair for anyone to choose to have a child and then expect someone else to take responsibility for the consequences.

Yet that is exactly the effect of maternity and paternity leave. An employee makes the choice to have a child – and would, quite rightly, object to any employer interfering in that choice – and then forces the same employer to bear some of the consequences of the same choice.

The poor employer has to suffer the negative consequences without enjoying any of the positive things usually associated with making children!

Even where the employer can reclaim the employee’s salary from the state – which is not always the case – the business must cope with the disruption of an employee being absent for a prolonged period without the option of hiring a permanent replacement. It is also unfair to any temporary replacement.

However, there are more employees than employers, so politicians seem incapable of resisting any proposal to extend maternity and paternity benefits, however unfair, uneconomic, and – in an overpopulated world – unnecessary they might be.

So it is no surprise that the European Parliament has voted to increase maternity leave. The lives of politicians in general are themselves another example of the power to choose being divorced from responsibility for the consequences of those choices. They can impose any burdens on business safe in the knowledge that it will not impact on their own daily existence – a privilege they exercise without restraint.

Can It Get Any More Stupid?

We become entrepreneurs because we love freedom. That means making our own choices – which means taking responsibility for the consequences of those choices. A choice without consequences is not really a choice.

This applies both to business choices and to personal choices. We cannot defend our right to make our own business choices without defending the rights of others to make their own personal choices, such as the choice to have children. However, just as we take responsibility for our business choices as entrepreneurs, those who choose to be parents must take responsibility for their personal choices.

So it is unfair for anyone to choose to have a child and then expect someone else to take responsibility for the consequences.

Yet that is exactly the effect of maternity and paternity leave. An employee makes the choice to have a child – and would, quite rightly, object to any employer interfering in that choice – and then forces the same employer to bear some of the consequences of the same choice.

The poor employer has to suffer the negative consequences without enjoying any of the positive things usually associated with making children!

Even where the employer can reclaim the employee’s salary from the state – which is not always the case – the business must cope with the disruption of an employee being absent for a prolonged period without the option of hiring a permanent replacement. It is also unfair to any temporary replacement.

However, there are more employees than employers, so politicians seem incapable of resisting any proposal to extend maternity and paternity benefits, however unfair, uneconomic, and – in an overpopulated world – unnecessary they might be.

So, as if the recent stupidity of the Equality Act wasn’t enough, it comes as no surprise that the European Parliament has added more poison to the chalice by voting to increase maternity leave.

The lives of politicians in general are themselves another example of the power to choose being divorced from responsibility for the consequences of those choices. They can impose any burdens on business safe in the knowledge that it will not impact on their own daily existence – a privilege they exercise without restraint.

Can it get any more stupid? Sadly yes it can and yes it will.

 

 

Looking For Signs

What are we to make of the UK’s higher than expected 1.1% growth in the last quarter?

Bank of England

Not too much. It is a one-off combination of a slight rise in confidence as a result of having a new government and the economic effects of the high spending policies of the previous government.

Neither will last. The high spending was always going to end after the General Election, irrespective of who won, and the novelty of having a new government will soon wear out when the spending ends and the cuts begin. There is no doubt that those cuts are necessary – indeed, long overdue – but they are going to hurt, and they are going to hurt business more than most. Many businesses rely on government contracts, and civil servants will cut outside contract before they cut their own numbers or salaries. Even businesses with no government contracts will see their overall markets contract.

Added to this is the weakness of the EU as a whole identified in a recent IMF report. This is the culmination of problems that have been building up for years – over-regulation of business, pension obligations, structural deficits, and all the other “usual suspects”. Some have been warning about these for years, but those in power have laughed at them and simply borrowed more money. Now the bill collectors are at the door.

Although the UK is guilty of some of the same economic crimes, Britain is not as badly exposed as some other EU states – at least not yet. The more immediate danger for British businesses is that their European markets may be contracting at the same time as their domestic markets.

However, we should not be too gloomy. The dreaded “double dip” recession still seems unlikely. Yet the fact that the Bank of England predicts that interest rates will remain low for some time is hardly a sign of confidence.

Things are never as bad as they seem – but they are never as good as they seem either.

 

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