Meanwhile, In the Real World...

Aristotle Onassis, Greek Shipping Magnate

While the Olympians of high politics clash with the Titans of international finance over the mega-million deals necessary to keep Greece in the euro, is anyone actually interested in what happens to Greece?

The top priority for Greece is to build a modern economy. Bailouts and austerity packages of themselves build nothing. While it is true that Greece, like America, Britain, and practically every other Western economy, needs to sort out its public sector debt, that in itself is not enough. Teaching a government to stand on its own two feet is a necessary precondition, but no more than that – a first step.

The important part, and the really hard part, is generating private sector business that adds value to the GDP. Those protesting about cuts in public services ignore the fact that, without viable businesses making money to pay taxes, there can be no public sector services. Fresh injections of German money are not the answer – it is reliance on easy money from eurozone partners that led the Greeks to ignore private sector competitiveness in the first place: there was no need to encourage enterprise when the government could borrow more without negative consequences.

That was never going to last forever. Some day the bills must be paid. Now that day has come, but the Greeks’ neglect of the private sector means they have nothing on which they can fall back.

Greek business is unprepared for reality. It is reported that Greek VAT revenue has fallen by almost 20% since January last year in spite of a 10% increase in rates. Of course, tax revenues in general tend to decline not “in spite of” rate increases but because of them. Faced with a choice between passing the rate increase on to their customers or taking it from their own profit margins – which may have been less than the percentage rate increase even before the recession – many small businesses become unviable. No wonder 60,000 Greek businesses have closed since the summer.

At the same time the Greek government learns to live within its means, it must learn to love Greek business. Certainly it must pay more attention to its needs. Higher taxes are not helpful in this context.

If the government can become more business-friendly, there may actually be hope for Greece, whether inside the euro or out. There is no need for the country to remain on international welfare forever. It has a lot going for it – landscapes and history that attract visitors, an outward-looking view of the world that dates back to Homer and Herodotus, and an outstanding tradition of entrepreneurship. In sectors from catering to shipping, Greek entrepreneurs have flourished all over the world. What will it take to let them flourish in their native land?   

A Sure Cure for Unemployment

Politicians of all parties profess to be concerned about unemployment – but they are absolutely clueless when it comes to implementing practical solutions. Or are they ignoring the facts deliberately?

They love to focus on big “job creation” projects – or, if in opposition, on big layoffs – by big business. British government spin doctors have been busy pushing the lasts ‘initiative’ this week.

Yet in most countries small businesses, having smaller reserves, are hardest hit by recession and are more likely to come under pressure to make people redundant – but also generate more new posts than big businesses.

In the UK, for example, there are over two million unemployed and almost five million small businesses. If half of those small businesses could take on just one new employee each, then there would be no more unemployment.

To this the objection might be made that over half of those five million small businesses consist of a single self-employed owner-operator with no other employees. However, this objection misses the point that these are the very people who would most like to take on some help – albeit on a casual basis, rather than full-time.

However, when they try to do so, they find that there are two enormous obstacles – one on each side of the deal that both parties want to make.

On the would-be employer’s side, there is a mountain of bureaucracy. Employing a single individual on a casual basis is a trip wire that triggers an avalanche of red tape that is, in some respects, just as complex and time-consuming as employing a dozen people full-time. Filling in tax forms for someone to whom you are paying a hundred pounds or dollars to do a little casual work is often more trouble than it is worth.

Meanwhile, on the would-be employee’s side, there is another, completely different pile of paperwork if the employee is, as usual, on some sort of benefits. Many benefits are withdrawn as soon as the unemployed person begins to earn – in effect 100% taxation of the very lowest earners!

So even where both parties are keen to do a deal, there are major disincentives on both sides.

Yet these disincentives are all artificial, the result of government regulation. If the government is serious about reducing unemployment, it is high time they did three things:

1.   Consult real small businesses – not various self-appointed trade bodies that cosy up to the government because they enjoy being part of the Establishment.

2.   Genuinely listen to and understand what they are being told – not just patronise us with the usual ‘lip service’.

3.   Find the political courage to act on the suggestions they are being given.

There are more employees than employers so in the short term there are more votes in robbing Peter (the employers) to pay Paul (the employees). But in the longer term we are left with a retarded economy and high unemployment. Short term political courage would lead to much long term economic gain.

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