Last week’s Icelandic volcano eruption has reminded us that there are imminent threats – and opportunities – which will almost certainly have a quantifiable impact on global business over the next few years.

These are not scare stories but real issues all businesses will need to consider very soon if not immediately.

1   Population. The spectacular growth of global population is the factor which underlies all the other environmental debates – but no one wants to discuss it. As far as business is concerned, more consumers should mean bigger markets and more workers should mean lower labour costs. However, since modern technology means more work can be done by fewer people, many of these additional people will find their economic prospects are limited. How can business provide for them?  

2   Natural Resources. Increasing population puts more pressure on limited resources, including minerals, food supplies, and water. The last is a particularly pressing issue. All businesses need water – it is significant that the Industrial Revolution began on fast flowing steams. Water shortage is now a limiting factor in the economic development of a great many places, including huge areas of the western United States, but could be a problem for businesses all over the world – or an opportunity for entrepreneurs with ideas about how to use water more efficiently.  

3   Energy. The long-predicted energy crisis is almost upon us. The United States has experienced massive failures of electricity supply, continental Europe is vulnerable to Russian threats to cut off gas supplies, the United Kingdom faces a power generation deficit in the next few years, and oil is now being sought in places previously considered marginal. All businesses are at risk, but there are fortunes to be made by those with the enterprise to develop new power sources or better methods of energy conservation. 

4   More Catastrophes. Our Statesman of the Year, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, the President of Iceland, has warned that his country has an even bigger volcano that is overdue for an eruption! With typical Nordic calm, he advises us not to panic but to prepare now. This applies to much more than volcanoes. However, it is an ill wind that blows no good, as they say: even with disasters, someone’s loss may be someone else’s gain.