They say that it is dangerous to make predictions –
especially, they say, in times like these. After all, they say, who could have
predicted the economic crisis last year?...
...Well, practically anyone who is actually in business, as opposed to talking about
it. Indeed, most of us have seen something like this coming since the late 90s.
The only surprise is that it has taken so long – and, as a result, will be
longer and nastier than it would otherwise be.
Of course, nothing is certain in this life and the
unexpected has a habit of happening, but, subject to that, there are some
things that seem as likely in 2009 as the crisis in 2008.
insolvency and personal bankruptcy, job losses, and foreclosures will be even
worse than most official sources predict.
2 At least one more
major financial scandal will be uncovered.
3 The markets may
still see some wild swings but will gradually stabilise as they find their
4 Most of the
various stimulus packages now being proposed around the world will, even if
approved formally, be scaled down or dropped quietly as fiscal reality becomes
5 For all that, life
will go on – and so will business.