Yes, obviously things are tough and set to get tougher next year.

However, they are, and will be, tough enough as it is without ignorant “commentators” talking the economy down further.

So, in keeping with this blog’s philosophy of trying to be positive, this is a good time to reflect that things could be a lot worse

...in the hope that no one makes them worse.

1   Markets are still basically free – despite panic-mongers calling for restrictions

2   Trade is still basically global – despite similar threats

3   Inflation is low – despite some inflationary pressures that should not be ignored

4   Interest rates are low – possibly too low but low nonetheless

5   From January, the leadership vacuum that always accompanies the “lame duck” and transition periods in the US  electoral cycle will end, and the Presidency and Congress will be controlled by the same party – which does not mean economic policies will be any better but at least it will be clear who is responsible for them

6   The G-20 have agreed the need to increase liquidity – even if they show no signs of understanding how this can be done efficiently

None of this is going to prevent a severe recession in 2009 – ignore anyone who pretends otherwise – but there is no reason why things should not begin to improve in 2010 if everyone keeps their heads.

Whether they will or not is not for us to say.