Yes, obviously things are tough and set to get tougher next
However, they are, and will be, tough enough as it is
without ignorant “commentators” talking the economy down further.
So, in keeping with this blog’s philosophy of trying to be
positive, this is a good time to reflect that things could be a lot worse
...in the hope that no one makes them worse.
1 Markets are still
basically free – despite panic-mongers calling for restrictions
2 Trade is still
basically global – despite similar threats
3 Inflation is low –
despite some inflationary pressures that should not be ignored
4 Interest rates are
low – possibly too low but low nonetheless
5 From January, the
leadership vacuum that always accompanies the “lame duck” and transition
periods in the US electoral cycle will
end, and the Presidency and Congress will be controlled by the same party –
which does not mean economic policies will be any better but at least it will
be clear who is responsible for them
6 The G-20 have
agreed the need to increase liquidity – even if they show no signs of
understanding how this can be done efficiently
None of this is going to prevent a severe recession in 2009
– ignore anyone who pretends otherwise – but there is no reason why things
should not begin to improve in 2010 if everyone keeps their heads.
Whether they will or not is not for us to say.