With Spring in the air, the financial markets seem in a frisky mood, there is a small bounce in British property prices. The banking system is no longer in danger of immanent collapse. President Obama says there are signs of hope in the economy...

This blog, which predicted the recession, has also been constant in the opinion that the worst might be over this year if no one panics – so the good news does not come as a complete surprise.

There are great opportunities for those who invest just as the recovery begins. It all comes down to timing. It is a matter of precise judgement and this blog would not want the responsibility of advising individuals.

However, as a general observation, those with cash probably ought to hold on to it for just a little longer. There are indeed many positive signs, but they should not mislead anyone into thinking that the worst is over now.

We are but in the eye of the hurricane – the calm that is right in the middle of the storm.

1   There remain fundamental structural problems in most economies.

2   Impressive recoveries are not what the markets need – they are a sign that they are still subject to dramatic mood swings: what we need is slow, steady, stable, realistic growth.

3   Although out of immediate crisis for the time being, banking remains a mess.

4   Politicians are still nervous: some retain addictions to stimulus packages, and even protectionism, which might make things worse.

5   When deflation ceases to be a problem, inflation will become a problem – possibly a bigger one.

6   Recovery will not be immediate: even if the recession bottoms out this year, it may be a long time before many businesses are back where they were before it began.

7   History shows that insolvencies, bankruptcies, and job losses may increase after the official end of the recession, as businesses which have struggled to hold on finally collapse.