There was once a fashion for “built-in obsolescence” that caused
a high-tech product to break down after a few years, forcing the customer to
buy another one. Happily, the firms who followed that fashion got such a bad
reputation that they had to change or die.
Instead, we now have “obsolescence by proxy”, which forces
the customer to buy an updated model, even if his old model is still working
well. The increase in computer speeds, for example, makes it very difficult to
use the internet with a ten year-old computer.
The most widespread “obsolescence by proxy” is the
deliberate restriction of supplies necessary to use old technology. Buying a
paper roll for an old fax machine or a blank tape for a VHS recorder or an ink
cartridge for an older printer can be so difficult that the customer buys the
new technology out of sheer frustration.
Yet many customers like their old technology. Geeks who work
in high-tech businesses should not assume that everyone shares their obsession
with having the very latest model. Some cannot afford to upgrade every few
years. Others have the money but resent spending it on a new system when their
existing one is doing the job perfectly well, thank you. Those who are
comfortable using their familiar technology are reluctant to start learning the
quirks of a more complicated system. Those with a lot of video tapes on VHS do
not welcome the time and expense of transferring their collections to disc.
The need to transfer data from “floppy disc” to CD format
has been a major inconvenience to many businesses. The low storage capacity of
the “diskette”, and the fact that new computers no longer have inbuilt drives to
insert it, put it in the bed next to the door some years ago. They have been
absent from most shops for some time now, and Sony has finally announced that
they will cease selling them. Yet many people and
businesses would still like to buy them.
It is a perfect example of an increasingly common situation,
in which the big manufacturers have a vested interest in “obsolescence by
proxy” – but in which smaller entrepreneurs have a golden opportunity.
Providing supplies necessary to operate “redundant” technology may be a massive
growth area in the years ahead, especially if the big manufacturers persist in
their strategy of trying to make redundancy faster than ever.
There is an instructive precedent in the history of vinyl
records. They have been redundant in technological terms for many years now,
and were effectively driven from the high street shops by the CD – but there
remains a huge market for them. Much of the money to be made from technological
progress can be made by defying it.