Supposedly expert commentators in the media have expressed
surprise that France and Germany appear to be coming
out of the recession before Britain and America.
Once again, however, readers of this blog should not be
surprised.
It was obvious at the time of the G-20 Summit that the
leaders of France and Germany felt their economies were in a stronger position:
this was why they rejected suggestions by the British and American governments
that the Summit should approve a global stimulus.
There are two factors that justify the Franco-German sense
of superiority.
First, France and Germany are not as dependent as the UK and
the USA on the crisis-hit financial sector.
Second, few governments were borrowing as much money as
Britain and America even before the recession.
However, the French and German governments should not get
too smug. The moment of greatest danger in the banking crisis has past, so it
is probable that the British and American financial sectors will regain their
pre-eminence.
At the same time, French and German reliance on
manufacturing means they are vulnerable to competitors in China and India –
competitors who are not burdened with European restrictive practices or the
costs of an expensive welfare state.
That is why entrepreneurs are not exactly flooding in to
France and Germany. Despite all their many faults, the UK and the USA remain –
for the moment at least – better places to set up a new business.