HISTORY OR HYPE?

According to an unscientific CNN poll, about 60% of respondents think the Inauguration of President Obama is historic, while about 40% think it is overhyped.

It is both.

It is historic that it is now beyond dispute that the powerful position in the world is open to all, regardless of race. All things are possible, even if harder for some than for others. There are no more excuses.

Yet the scope for real change in the economy is limited.

Despite the media caricatures, George W Bush did not cause the recession and Barak Obama does not have the power to end it. Even the President of the United States cannot command the economy – nor should he try.

However, there are two things he can do.

First, he can be confident. Whether or not he ought to be is not the point. The markets are an optical illusion: they can turn the appearance of confidence into the real thing. Mr Obama’s ability to project confidence is his greatest asset.

Second, he can be patient. Recession is, in practical terms, unavoidable – but it will pass – or, rather it will pass unless politicians are panicked into unwise stimulus packages which turn recession into depression. Mr Obama cannot cure recession, but if he can stay cool and avoid the temptation of the “quick fix”, then slowly but surely, things will begin to improve.

In his need for confidence and patience, the Chief Executive of the United States is no different from the chief executives of millions of small businesses facing recession. If he can deliver them, he will deserve the hype.

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