Letter From America

There is no denying that the American Presidential Primaries are the best show in Town at the moment. They have it all – thrills, spills, reversals, knife edge results, and a cast of colourful characters.

Yet the hard-working entrepreneur with a business to run is entitled to ask, “Does any of this matter?”

True, what happened in America once determined everything: Wall Street sneezed and the world caught a cold.

Yet America is now only one of a number of major players in the global economy – and, in any case, even within in the USA, the President, for all the pomp of his office, is not as influential in economic policy as most Heads of Government are in their own countries. In fact the President comes a poor third, after the Federal Reserve and Congress,   in the big economic decisions.

He cannot influence interest rates directly. His role in the budget is restricted to sending his suggestions to Congress – which usually ignores them – and having the right of veto over what Congress decides – a right he would usually be foolish to exercise.

However, as so often, there is more to reality than the bare facts. The structure of the global market place gives the USA far more practical influence than its GDP might suggest, and the practicalities of politics give the President far more power than the Constitution intended.

He might not set interest rates directly, but he nominates the Federal Reserve Board which does. He also has considerable political patronage at his disposal, with which he can lobby, bribe, and blackmail Congress.

It is a curious fact that, in recent years at least, this has been done most successfully when the President has been of a different Party than the one controlling Congress, or at least one of the Houses.

Republican Ronald Reagan charmed a Democratic Congress into approving the economic side of the Reagan Revolution. Democrat Bill Clinton only got to grips with the deficit once he had a Republican Congress. The same Bill Clinton had previously got nowhere with a Congress run by his own Party.

Similarly, Republican George W Bush made little progress on the economy with a Republican Congress. Now, in only a few weeks, a Democratic Congress has passed a version of a “stimulus package” he suggested.

This has little to do with cross-party co-operation. It is, on the contrary, pure capitalist-style competition. Neither Party wants to be portrayed as being an obstacle to tackling major economic problems – especially in an election year.

Out of this creative conflict comes progress. The free market works even in politics. Democracy, like the free market, only prevails where there is a real choice between service providers

It is not for any foreigner to tell American citizens how to vote. However, speaking purely as an entrepreneur, with a stake in the global economy, the best thing for business would be for the President and Congress to be of different Parties, so that this healthy competition continues.

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