The rapid growth of an economy can look very impressive, especially when it starts from a low base, but the real strength of that economy can only be judged when that initial expansionist phase is interrupted or comes to its inevitable end.

At the moment, it may seem that the future belongs to India and China, but they have yet to be seriously tested. Whether or not their economic progress is permanent will only become clear when their spectacular growth is slowed or stopped – which must happen sooner or later.

Recession is a hallmark of all developed economies. Rapid growth, far from exempting an economy from recession, actually brings it on. This has been the case with all previous “tiger economies”.

Japan and South Korea were taken aback when their growth was interrupted by economic crisis. They were honestly amazed that it could happen to them. They have recovered economically but have never quite regained their old confidence.

The United States, on the other hand, has always had the capacity to bounce back.

Much of this is due to a genuine enterprise culture that instils positive attitudes towards business in most of the population.

Political stability is also a factor. One of the big question marks about China’s growth is whether it can survive a recession if that undermines confidence in market reforms and leads to an increase in the influence of traditional leftists within the ruling Communist Party.

China and India must also cope with the challenges of population growth, environmental change, and scarce natural resources – any of which could reveal the fragility of their growth. Only time will tell.