Should any fund managers with millions to spare for bonus payments be reading this, they could do a lot worse than to give a few of them to the people who write this blog.

Without wishing to blow our own trumpets, our predictions over the last three years have proved a lot more accurate than those of the expensive “experts” hired by major players, who have lost their shirts in the crash and its aftermath.

First, we predicted the crash – which, to be honest, was not that difficult to foresee, but many in authority still did not foresee it. Then, at the height of the crisis, we said things would stabilise so long as no one panicked – a prediction that called for a lot more courage at the time. Most of the “experts” were saying the opposite – panicking, in fact.

Since then, we have been warning about the return of inflation. We started our warnings at the time when the “experts” were screaming about the dangers of deflation.

The “experts” have finally caught up with us. It can no longer be denied that inflation is back.

We are told that it is a temporary anomaly – a “blip”. We have heard that one before.

Some of the factors behind the most recent rise will indeed work their way through the system fairly quickly. However, there may be longer term trends at work as well.

Inflation reduces the value of debts – bad news for fixed rate creditors, but good news for their debtors. This is particularly significant when the biggest debtors are governments, most notably those of the UK and the USA.

Do our politicians have the moral fibre to resist the temptation to let a little inflation into the system to ease their problems when their deficit crises really start to bite? The signs are not encouraging: Britain has been printing money and American politicians on all sides seem content to put off their deficit problem with the time-honoured delaying tactic of appointing a committee to consider it.

At the same time, almost everyone is ignoring the inflationary time bomb of the combination of limited natural resources and increasing population.

In the years ahead, entrepreneurs who take the probability of inflation into account in their planning and preparations will have a competitive advantage over those who do not.